China has the world’s second largest economy and the highest rate of GDP growth among developing nations. It needs to ensure unrestricted, secure access to commodities and other goods, and Chinese buyers search the world for resources to import. The country is the world’s number one importer of iron, aluminum, petroleum, and soybeans.
China’s major concern is selecting reliable and stable resource providers. It employs an effective pattern of securing relationships with suppliers through an offer of enhanced political ties and infrastructure investments.
Equally important are secure transportation routes between China and its trading partners. In 2018, the country’s leaders announced plans for a “Polar Silk Road” that would use Canada’s Northwest Passage (NWP) and Russia’s Northern Shipping Route (NSR) to cross the Arctic Ocean. This could reduce transit times from China to Europe by 40 percent.
That is the theory. In practice, polar experts warn that ice obstructions can be encountered most of the year. While the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world, the current navigation season for ships not ice-strengthened is about five months. Seasonal variations in ice cover make forecasting difficult, and it could be decades before year-round navigation for ordinary vessels is possible
The seven Arctic nations—Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States—founded the Arctic Council in 1996. A working forum, it coordinates member issues and opportunities near and above the Arctic Circle. In 2013, China asked for and was granted non-voting observer status to ensure its voice would be heard.
The Russian Government created the Northern Sea Route Administration that same year to act as manager of the passage across Siberia. Seventy-one ships used it in 2013. Three years later, in 2016, 297 ships used the NSR—although most were small Russian-flagged vessels. Russian fees for pilotage and icebreaking may become a major cost factor for ship operators.
Additional cost questions about these polar routes relate to insurance risks, a possible mandate only to use strengthened vessels (which cost 15 percent more to build), and the impact of the classification societies’ technical rules for high latitude vessel operations. Also, there is almost no shipping support infrastructure in the Canadian Archipelago or along Russia’s Siberian coast. Tens of billions of dollars will be needed to create such infrastructure. China has offered to make significant investments in each area.
In the near term, it is unlikely that either route will be used for container liner shipping. Container services require fixed routes and shipping schedules. Those could be difficult to maintain in the Arctic, where ice conditions vary from year to year. But bulk cargo ships are beginning to use these routes, because precise service schedules are less critical.
In 2014, President Xi Jinping of China expressed an intent for China to become a “major polar power.” The Polar Silk Route as fully envisioned will take time, but much of its long range planning is in place.
In 1994 China bought a newly built icebreaking and supply support vessel from the Ukraine. Named Xuelong (“Snow Dragon”), it was converted to a research and logistics support ship. In its first years, it supported the People’s Republic’s four Antarctic research stations. A major Chinese mission in 2017 circumnavigated the Arctic Ocean, transiting the NWP and the NSR along the way.
A Chinese-built nuclear icebreaker, Xuelong 2, is being completed to supplement the original Snow Dragon. Technical assistance has been provided by experts from Finland and Russia. It is China’s first nuclear-powered surface ship and is scheduled to be commissioned during the first half of 2019.
Both the Canadian and Russian Arctic regions offer major commodity extraction opportunities in natural gas, coal, oil, and nickel. Major iron ore deposits in the Canadian Arctic are being developed and produced with Chinese financing assistance. It is estimated that 25 percent of the world’s undiscovered natural gas and 7 percent of its petroleum resources are located in the Arctic. Most of this wealth is located on Russia’s continental shelf, the largest shelf in the World Ocean.
The Russian Bear and the Chinese Dragon have now met in the Arctic. It seems both nations are benefiting as a result.
Captain Walsh , a marine consultant, is a retired naval officer and oceanographer. During his naval career, he served at sea in submarines and ashore in ocean-related research-and-development assignments.